Insider Trading

Federal prosecutors in Manhattan and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged a Google software engineer on May 27, 2026, with using confidential internal search data to make money on Polymarket, a platform where people trade contracts tied to whether a specified event will occur. It was the second such case in weeks, following one involving a service member accused of trading on classified information, and it pushed insider trading style theories well beyond stocks and bonds into event contracts.

The charges raise unsettled questions about whether confidential business information is protected in these markets the way it is in securities markets, and how far the CFTC’s enforcement authority reaches. For companies, the immediate concern is that standard insider trading and confidentiality policies were written with company stock in mind and may say nothing about employees trading on outside prediction platforms using nonpublic internal data. Regulators applying familiar fraud theories to a new market is the development to watch.

As prediction markets expand beyond elections and sports to cover corporate, regulatory, and geopolitical events, employees, directors, and other insiders who know something nonpublic may be able to profit from that knowledge without ever touching a share of stock. The government’s position, reflected in the first insider trading case brought over these markets, is that existing insider trading and antifraud principles already apply to event contracts. That leaves a gap for most companies given that standard insider trading policies, confidentiality agreements, and codes of conduct are typically drafted around trading in the company’s own securities and may not reach these platforms at all.

To avoid legal, reputational, and compliance exposure, organizations – whether public or private – should address prediction markets before an incident rather than after, including by: prohibiting misuse of confidential business information, naming prediction markets explicitly in the company’s relevant policies, extending confidentiality obligations to information that could move an event contract, training people on the risk, and adding monitoring and reporting controls.